Algar 0–2 UCAM Murcia II: Result & Stats

Algar

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

UCAM Murcia II

9/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Estadio Sánchez Luengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Algar28%

×Draw25%

UCAM Murcia II48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlgarExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.60

Algar

1.16

UCAM Murcia II

1.60

UCAM Murcia II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

1.18

creates per match

1.33

1.88

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Algar

1.18

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

Algar

1.88

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algar+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algar ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Algar or draw

52%

Algar or UCAM Murcia II

75%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

72%

Winning margin

Algar wins by 2+

11%

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Algar 1+ goals

69%

Algar 2+ goals

32%

Algar 3+ goals

11%

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

80%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

47%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Algar (draw refunded)

37%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Algar at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Algar attack 1.18 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Algar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Algar scores more

28%

level

25%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

48%

UCAM Murcia II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff