Ubon UMT 0–1 Ayutthaya FC: Result & Stats

Ubon UMT

FT

0 – 1

Ayutthaya FC

4/27/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 11UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ubon UMT31%

×Draw27%

Ayutthaya FC43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ubon UMTExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.39

Ubon UMT

1.13

Ayutthaya FC

1.39

Ayutthaya FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

0.88

creates per match

1.25

1.53

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Ubon UMT

0.88

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Ubon UMT

1.53

Ayutthaya FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubon UMT ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ubon UMT or draw

57%

Ubon UMT or Ayutthaya FC

73%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

69%

Winning margin

Ubon UMT wins by 2+

12%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ubon UMT 1+ goals

68%

Ubon UMT 2+ goals

31%

Ubon UMT 3+ goals

11%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

75%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

40%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ubon UMT (draw refunded)

42%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubon UMT at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubon UMT attack 0.88 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Ubon UMT defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ubon UMT scores more

31%

level

27%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

43%

Ayutthaya FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff