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Ayutthaya FC vs Ubon UMT — Thai League 2 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
FT
1 – 2
Ubon UMT
Ubon UMT
8/21/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 27Ayutthaya Stadium (Ayutthaya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ayutthaya FC52%
×Draw25%
Ubon UMT24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
1.65
Ubon UMT
1.04

Ayutthaya FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.54
Ubon UMT
0.82

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.26
Ubon UMT
1.76

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Ubon UMT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
76%
Ayutthaya FC or Ubon UMT
75%
Draw or Ubon UMT
48%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
28%
Ubon UMT wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
81%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
49%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
23%
Ubon UMT 1+ goals
65%
Ubon UMT 2+ goals
28%
Ubon UMT 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
68%
Ubon UMT (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Ubon UMT away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Ubon UMT defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ubon UMT attack 0.82 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
52%
level
25%
Ubon UMT scores more
24%

Ayutthaya FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayutthaya FC vs Ubon UMT

Ubon UMT beat Ayutthaya FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on August 21, 2019.

The match was played at Ayutthaya Stadium (Ayutthaya).