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Ubombo Sugar vs Nsingizini Hotspurs — Premier League 2020

Ubombo Sugar
Ubombo Sugar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nsingizini Hotspurs
Nsingizini Hotspurs
2/28/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ubombo Sugar17%
×Draw29%
Nsingizini Hotspurs55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ubombo Sugar
0.60
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.33

Nsingizini Hotspurs creates 122% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 54 away

creates per match

Ubombo Sugar
0.53
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.33

allows per match

Ubombo Sugar
1.33
Nsingizini Hotspurs
0.67

finishing

Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par
Nsingizini Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubombo Sugar ↓

Nsingizini Hotspurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–119%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ubombo Sugar or draw
45%
Ubombo Sugar or Nsingizini Hotspurs
71%
Draw or Nsingizini Hotspurs
83%

Winning margin

Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+
4%
Nsingizini Hotspurs wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals
45%
Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals
12%
Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals
2%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 1+ goals
74%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 2+ goals
38%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)
24%
Nsingizini Hotspurs (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubombo Sugar at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Nsingizini Hotspurs away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubombo Sugar attack 0.53 + Nsingizini Hotspurs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.60

Nsingizini Hotspurs attack 1.33 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ubombo Sugar scores more
17%
level
29%
Nsingizini Hotspurs scores more
55%

Nsingizini Hotspurs at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nsingizini Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ubombo Sugar vs Nsingizini Hotspurs

Nsingizini Hotspurs beat Ubombo Sugar 1-0 in Premier League on February 28, 2026.