Nsingizini Hotspurs 2–0 Ubombo Sugar

Nsingizini Hotspurs

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ubombo Sugar

11/1/2025

Premier League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nsingizini Hotspurs46%

×Draw29%

Ubombo Sugar26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nsingizini HotspursExpected goals in this matchUbombo Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.88

Nsingizini Hotspurs

1.28

Ubombo Sugar

0.88

Nsingizini Hotspurs creates 45% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

1.36

creates per match

1.13

0.62

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Nsingizini Hotspurs

1.36

Ubombo Sugar

1.13

allows per match

Nsingizini Hotspurs

0.62

Ubombo Sugar

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nsingizini Hotspurs+0.00on par

Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsingizini Hotspurs ↓

Ubombo Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nsingizini Hotspurs or draw

74%

Nsingizini Hotspurs or Ubombo Sugar

71%

Draw or Ubombo Sugar

54%

Winning margin

Nsingizini Hotspurs wins by 2+

21%

Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nsingizini Hotspurs 1+ goals

72%

Nsingizini Hotspurs 2+ goals

37%

Nsingizini Hotspurs 3+ goals

14%

Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals

59%

Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals

22%

Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nsingizini Hotspurs (draw refunded)

64%

Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsingizini Hotspurs at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.62 · 53 matches

Ubombo Sugar away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsingizini Hotspurs attack 1.36 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ubombo Sugar attack 1.13 + Nsingizini Hotspurs defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nsingizini Hotspurs scores more

46%

level

29%

Ubombo Sugar scores more

26%

Nsingizini Hotspurs at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nsingizini Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff