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Ubombo Sugar vs Green Mamba — Premier League 2020

Ubombo Sugar
Ubombo Sugar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Green Mamba
Green Mamba
11/8/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ubombo Sugar19%
×Draw27%
Green Mamba54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ubombo Sugar
0.70
Green Mamba
1.41

Green Mamba creates 101% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ubombo Sugar
0.53
Green Mamba
1.49

allows per match

Ubombo Sugar
1.33
Green Mamba
0.86

finishing

Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par
Green Mamba+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubombo Sugar ↓

Green Mamba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ubombo Sugar or draw
46%
Ubombo Sugar or Green Mamba
73%
Draw or Green Mamba
81%

Winning margin

Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+
5%
Green Mamba wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals
50%
Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals
16%
Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals
3%
Green Mamba 1+ goals
76%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
41%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)
26%
Green Mamba (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubombo Sugar at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Green Mamba away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubombo Sugar attack 0.53 + Green Mamba defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.70

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ubombo Sugar scores more
19%
level
27%
Green Mamba scores more
54%

Green Mamba at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ubombo Sugar vs Green Mamba

Green Mamba beat Ubombo Sugar 1-0 in Premier League on November 8, 2025.