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Green Mamba vs Ubombo Sugar — Premier League 2020

Green Mamba
Green Mamba
FT
1 – 0
Ubombo Sugar
Ubombo Sugar
4/11/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Green Mamba43%
×Draw27%
Ubombo Sugar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Mamba
1.34
Ubombo Sugar
1.05

Green Mamba creates 28% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Green Mamba
1.49
Ubombo Sugar
1.13

allows per match

Green Mamba
0.98
Ubombo Sugar
1.20

finishing

Green Mamba+0.00on par
Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Mamba ↓

Ubombo Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Green Mamba or draw
71%
Green Mamba or Ubombo Sugar
73%
Draw or Ubombo Sugar
57%

Winning margin

Green Mamba wins by 2+
20%
Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Green Mamba 1+ goals
74%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
39%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
15%
Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals
65%
Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals
28%
Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Green Mamba (draw refunded)
60%
Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Mamba at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

Ubombo Sugar away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ubombo Sugar attack 1.13 + Green Mamba defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Green Mamba scores more
43%
level
27%
Ubombo Sugar scores more
29%

Green Mamba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Mamba vs Ubombo Sugar

Green Mamba beat Ubombo Sugar 1-0 in Premier League on April 11, 2026.