Uberlandia 0–3 Inter De Limeira: Result & Stats

Uberlandia

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Inter De Limeira

Kadu 90'

Michael Paulista 51'

Lucas Douglas 6'

7/19/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Municipal João Havelange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Uberlandia38%

×Draw30%

Inter De Limeira33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UberlandiaExpected goals in this matchInter De Limeira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.01

Uberlandia

1.11

Inter De Limeira

1.01

Uberlandia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 43 away

1.55

creates per match

0.86

1.17

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Uberlandia

1.55

Inter De Limeira

0.86

allows per match

Uberlandia

1.17

Inter De Limeira

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uberlandia+0.00on par

Inter De Limeira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberlandia ↓

Inter De Limeira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Uberlandia or draw

67%

Uberlandia or Inter De Limeira

70%

Draw or Inter De Limeira

62%

Winning margin

Uberlandia wins by 2+

15%

Inter De Limeira wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Uberlandia 1+ goals

67%

Uberlandia 2+ goals

30%

Uberlandia 3+ goals

10%

Inter De Limeira 1+ goals

64%

Inter De Limeira 2+ goals

27%

Inter De Limeira 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Uberlandia (draw refunded)

54%

Inter De Limeira (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberlandia at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Inter De Limeira away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberlandia attack 1.55 + Inter De Limeira defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.11

Inter De Limeira attack 0.86 + Uberlandia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uberlandia scores more

38%

level

30%

Inter De Limeira scores more

33%

Uberlandia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uberlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Lucas Douglas

51'

Michael Paulista

90'

Kadu

Uberlandia

Inter

Manager: Alexandre Lopes

Manager: Ademir Fesan