Inter De Limeira 1–0 Uberlandia: Result & Stats

Inter De Limeira

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Uberlandia

Miguel Bianconi 15'

4/26/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Major José Levy Sobrinho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inter De Limeira35%

×Draw29%

Uberlandia35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter De LimeiraExpected goals in this matchUberlandia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

Inter De Limeira

1.09

Uberlandia

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 15 away

1.32

creates per match

1.33

0.86

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Inter De Limeira

1.32

Uberlandia

1.33

allows per match

Inter De Limeira

0.86

Uberlandia

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter De Limeira+0.00on par

Uberlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter De Limeira ↓

Uberlandia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Inter De Limeira or draw

65%

Inter De Limeira or Uberlandia

71%

Draw or Uberlandia

65%

Winning margin

Inter De Limeira wins by 2+

14%

Uberlandia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Inter De Limeira 1+ goals

66%

Inter De Limeira 2+ goals

30%

Inter De Limeira 3+ goals

10%

Uberlandia 1+ goals

66%

Uberlandia 2+ goals

30%

Uberlandia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Inter De Limeira (draw refunded)

50%

Uberlandia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter De Limeira at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Uberlandia away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter De Limeira attack 1.32 + Uberlandia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.09

Uberlandia attack 1.33 + Inter De Limeira defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Inter De Limeira scores more

35%

level

29%

Uberlandia scores more

35%

Inter De Limeira at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Inter De Limeira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Miguel Bianconi

Inter

Uberlandia

⚽

Manager: Ademir Fesan

Inter De Limeira substitutes

ClaudinhoLucasWallaceHenriqueLeiteAlmeidaFrazanJuninhoCostaMaurícioRobsonThiaguinho

Manager: Alexandre Lopes

Uberlandia substitutes

XavierTchêBrendoCarneiroJoandersonKlausGabrielLeviRenanFeitosaRafael

Serie D: Inter De Limeira 1–0 Uberlandia

Inter De Limeira beat Uberlandia 1-0 in Serie D on April 26, 2025.

Goals: Miguel Bianconi (15').

The match was played at Estádio Major José Levy Sobrinho in Limeira.

Inter De Limeira vs Uberlandia — Serie D 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Inter De Limeira 1–0 Uberlandia