Uberlandia 1–0 Aymorés: Result & Stats

Uberlandia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aymorés

4/30/2023

Mineiro - 2 · Round 1Estádio Municipal João Havelange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Uberlandia56%

×Draw25%

Aymorés19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UberlandiaExpected goals in this matchAymorés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.85

Uberlandia

1.64

Aymorés

0.85

Uberlandia creates 93% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 35 away

1.91

creates per match

0.71

1.00

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Uberlandia

1.91

Aymorés

0.71

allows per match

Uberlandia

1.00

Aymorés

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uberlandia+0.00on par

Aymorés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberlandia ↓

Aymorés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Uberlandia or draw

81%

Uberlandia or Aymorés

75%

Draw or Aymorés

44%

Winning margin

Uberlandia wins by 2+

30%

Aymorés wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Uberlandia 1+ goals

81%

Uberlandia 2+ goals

49%

Uberlandia 3+ goals

23%

Aymorés 1+ goals

57%

Aymorés 2+ goals

21%

Aymorés 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Uberlandia (draw refunded)

74%

Aymorés (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberlandia at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Aymorés away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberlandia attack 1.91 + Aymorés defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.64

Aymorés attack 0.71 + Uberlandia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Uberlandia scores more

56%

level

25%

Aymorés scores more

19%

Uberlandia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Uberlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff