Aymorés 1–1 Uberlandia: Result & Stats

Aymorés

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Uberlandia

Rafael Peixoto 45+4'

C. Mello 15'

7/1/2023

Mineiro - 2 · Hexagonal Final - 2Estádio Afonso de Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aymorés41%

×Draw31%

Uberlandia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AymorésExpected goals in this matchUberlandia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.87

Aymorés

1.10

Uberlandia

0.87

Aymorés creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 10 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

0.74

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Aymorés

1.41

Uberlandia

1.00

allows per match

Aymorés

0.74

Uberlandia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aymorés+0.00on par

Uberlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aymorés ↓

Uberlandia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Aymorés or draw

71%

Aymorés or Uberlandia

69%

Draw or Uberlandia

59%

Winning margin

Aymorés wins by 2+

17%

Uberlandia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aymorés 1+ goals

67%

Aymorés 2+ goals

30%

Aymorés 3+ goals

10%

Uberlandia 1+ goals

58%

Uberlandia 2+ goals

22%

Uberlandia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Aymorés (draw refunded)

59%

Uberlandia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aymorés at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Uberlandia away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aymorés attack 1.41 + Uberlandia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Uberlandia attack 1.00 + Aymorés defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aymorés scores more

41%

level

31%

Uberlandia scores more

29%

Aymorés at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aymorés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

C. Mello

45+4'

Rafael Peixoto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff