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UB Mazaalaynuud vs Sumida Gepro — Premier League 2020

UB Mazaalaynuud
UB Mazaalaynuud
FT
1 – 0
Sumida Gepro
Sumida Gepro
8/12/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

UB Mazaalaynuud56%
×Draw18%
Sumida Gepro26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UB Mazaalaynuud
2.81
Sumida Gepro
1.89

UB Mazaalaynuud creates 49% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

UB Mazaalaynuud
0.50
Sumida Gepro
0.22

allows per match

UB Mazaalaynuud
3.56
Sumida Gepro
5.11

finishing

UB Mazaalaynuud+0.00on par
Sumida Gepro+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UB Mazaalaynuud ↓

Sumida Gepro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

UB Mazaalaynuud or draw
74%
UB Mazaalaynuud or Sumida Gepro
82%
Draw or Sumida Gepro
44%

Winning margin

UB Mazaalaynuud wins by 2+
37%
Sumida Gepro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

UB Mazaalaynuud 1+ goals
94%
UB Mazaalaynuud 2+ goals
76%
UB Mazaalaynuud 3+ goals
52%
Sumida Gepro 1+ goals
85%
Sumida Gepro 2+ goals
56%
Sumida Gepro 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

UB Mazaalaynuud (draw refunded)
69%
Sumida Gepro (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UB Mazaalaynuud at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

Sumida Gepro away — creates 0.22, concedes 5.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UB Mazaalaynuud attack 0.50 + Sumida Gepro defence 5.11 → ÷2 → 2.81

Sumida Gepro attack 0.22 + UB Mazaalaynuud defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

UB Mazaalaynuud scores more
56%
level
18%
Sumida Gepro scores more
26%

UB Mazaalaynuud at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "UB Mazaalaynuud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UB Mazaalaynuud vs Sumida Gepro

UB Mazaalaynuud beat Sumida Gepro 1-0 in Premier League on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.