Sumida Gepro 0–3 UB Mazaalaynuud: Result & Stats

Sumida Gepro

FT

0 – 3

UB Mazaalaynuud

9/24/2020

Premier League · Round 17Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sumida Gepro23%

×Draw17%

UB Mazaalaynuud60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sumida GeproExpected goals in this matchUB Mazaalaynuud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

3.19

Sumida Gepro

2.00

UB Mazaalaynuud

3.19

UB Mazaalaynuud creates 60% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

0.56

creates per match

0.72

5.67

allows per match

3.44

creates per match

Sumida Gepro

0.56

UB Mazaalaynuud

0.72

allows per match

Sumida Gepro

5.67

UB Mazaalaynuud

3.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sumida Gepro+0.00on par

UB Mazaalaynuud+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sumida Gepro ↓

UB Mazaalaynuud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Sumida Gepro or draw

40%

Sumida Gepro or UB Mazaalaynuud

83%

Draw or UB Mazaalaynuud

77%

Winning margin

Sumida Gepro wins by 2+

11%

UB Mazaalaynuud wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Sumida Gepro 1+ goals

86%

Sumida Gepro 2+ goals

59%

Sumida Gepro 3+ goals

32%

UB Mazaalaynuud 1+ goals

96%

UB Mazaalaynuud 2+ goals

82%

UB Mazaalaynuud 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Sumida Gepro (draw refunded)

28%

UB Mazaalaynuud (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sumida Gepro at home — creates 0.56, concedes 5.67 · 9 matches

UB Mazaalaynuud away — creates 0.72, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sumida Gepro attack 0.56 + UB Mazaalaynuud defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.00

UB Mazaalaynuud attack 0.72 + Sumida Gepro defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sumida Gepro scores more

23%

level

17%

UB Mazaalaynuud scores more

60%

UB Mazaalaynuud at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "UB Mazaalaynuud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff