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UB Mazaalaynuud vs Anduud City — Premier League 2020

UB Mazaalaynuud
UB Mazaalaynuud
FT
0 – 3
Anduud City
Anduud City
8/1/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

UB Mazaalaynuud37%
×Draw20%
Anduud City44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UB Mazaalaynuud
2.20
Anduud City
2.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

UB Mazaalaynuud
0.50
Anduud City
1.22

allows per match

UB Mazaalaynuud
3.56
Anduud City
3.89

finishing

UB Mazaalaynuud+0.00on par
Anduud City+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UB Mazaalaynuud ↓

Anduud City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

UB Mazaalaynuud or draw
56%
UB Mazaalaynuud or Anduud City
80%
Draw or Anduud City
63%

Winning margin

UB Mazaalaynuud wins by 2+
20%
Anduud City wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

UB Mazaalaynuud 1+ goals
89%
UB Mazaalaynuud 2+ goals
64%
UB Mazaalaynuud 3+ goals
37%
Anduud City 1+ goals
91%
Anduud City 2+ goals
69%
Anduud City 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

UB Mazaalaynuud (draw refunded)
46%
Anduud City (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UB Mazaalaynuud at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

Anduud City away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UB Mazaalaynuud attack 0.50 + Anduud City defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.20

Anduud City attack 1.22 + UB Mazaalaynuud defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UB Mazaalaynuud scores more
37%
level
20%
Anduud City scores more
44%

Anduud City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Anduud City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: UB Mazaalaynuud 0–3 Anduud City

Anduud City beat UB Mazaalaynuud 3-0 in Premier League on August 1, 2020.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.