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Anduud City vs UB Mazaalaynuud — Premier League 2020

Anduud City
Anduud City
FT
1 – 2
UB Mazaalaynuud
UB Mazaalaynuud
9/13/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Anduud City38%
×Draw19%
UB Mazaalaynuud43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anduud City
2.27
UB Mazaalaynuud
2.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Anduud City
1.11
UB Mazaalaynuud
0.72

allows per match

Anduud City
4.11
UB Mazaalaynuud
3.44

finishing

Anduud City+0.00on par
UB Mazaalaynuud+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anduud City ↓

UB Mazaalaynuud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Anduud City or draw
57%
Anduud City or UB Mazaalaynuud
81%
Draw or UB Mazaalaynuud
62%

Winning margin

Anduud City wins by 2+
21%
UB Mazaalaynuud wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Anduud City 1+ goals
90%
Anduud City 2+ goals
66%
Anduud City 3+ goals
39%
UB Mazaalaynuud 1+ goals
91%
UB Mazaalaynuud 2+ goals
69%
UB Mazaalaynuud 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Anduud City (draw refunded)
47%
UB Mazaalaynuud (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anduud City at home — creates 1.11, concedes 4.11 · 9 matches

UB Mazaalaynuud away — creates 0.72, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anduud City attack 1.11 + UB Mazaalaynuud defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.27

UB Mazaalaynuud attack 0.72 + Anduud City defence 4.11 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Anduud City scores more
38%
level
19%
UB Mazaalaynuud scores more
43%

UB Mazaalaynuud at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UB Mazaalaynuud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Anduud City 1–2 UB Mazaalaynuud

UB Mazaalaynuud beat Anduud City 2-1 in Premier League on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.