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UAI Urquiza vs San Martín Burzaco — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Martín Burzaco
San Martín Burzaco
7/27/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 7Estadio Monumental de Villa Lynch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

UAI Urquiza42%
×Draw30%
San Martín Burzaco28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UAI Urquiza
1.17
San Martín Burzaco
0.89

UAI Urquiza creates 31% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 54 away

creates per match

UAI Urquiza
0.94
San Martín Burzaco
0.74

allows per match

UAI Urquiza
1.04
San Martín Burzaco
1.39

finishing

UAI Urquiza+0.00on par
San Martín Burzaco+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UAI Urquiza ↓

San Martín Burzaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

UAI Urquiza or draw
72%
UAI Urquiza or San Martín Burzaco
70%
Draw or San Martín Burzaco
58%

Winning margin

UAI Urquiza wins by 2+
18%
San Martín Burzaco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UAI Urquiza 1+ goals
69%
UAI Urquiza 2+ goals
33%
UAI Urquiza 3+ goals
11%
San Martín Burzaco 1+ goals
59%
San Martín Burzaco 2+ goals
22%
San Martín Burzaco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UAI Urquiza (draw refunded)
60%
San Martín Burzaco (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UAI Urquiza at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

San Martín Burzaco away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UAI Urquiza attack 0.94 + San Martín Burzaco defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Martín Burzaco attack 0.74 + UAI Urquiza defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UAI Urquiza scores more
42%
level
30%
San Martín Burzaco scores more
28%

UAI Urquiza at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UAI Urquiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: UAI Urquiza 1–0 San Martín Burzaco

UAI Urquiza beat San Martín Burzaco 1-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental de Villa Lynch in General San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.