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San Martín Burzaco vs UAI Urquiza — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

San Martín Burzaco
San Martín Burzaco
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza
10/11/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 17Francisco Boga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

San Martín Burzaco46%
×Draw30%
UAI Urquiza24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martín Burzaco
1.23
UAI Urquiza
0.80

San Martín Burzaco creates 54% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 138 away

creates per match

San Martín Burzaco
1.13
UAI Urquiza
0.91

allows per match

San Martín Burzaco
0.68
UAI Urquiza
1.32

finishing

San Martín Burzaco+0.00on par
UAI Urquiza+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín Burzaco ↓

UAI Urquiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Martín Burzaco or draw
76%
San Martín Burzaco or UAI Urquiza
70%
Draw or UAI Urquiza
54%

Winning margin

San Martín Burzaco wins by 2+
21%
UAI Urquiza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Martín Burzaco 1+ goals
71%
San Martín Burzaco 2+ goals
35%
San Martín Burzaco 3+ goals
13%
UAI Urquiza 1+ goals
55%
UAI Urquiza 2+ goals
19%
UAI Urquiza 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Martín Burzaco (draw refunded)
66%
UAI Urquiza (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martín Burzaco at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.68 · 53 matches

UAI Urquiza away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martín Burzaco attack 1.13 + UAI Urquiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

UAI Urquiza attack 0.91 + San Martín Burzaco defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Martín Burzaco scores more
46%
level
30%
UAI Urquiza scores more
24%

San Martín Burzaco at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Martín Burzaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Martín Burzaco vs UAI Urquiza

San Martín Burzaco beat UAI Urquiza 5-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Francisco Boga Stadium in Buenos Aires.