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UAI Urquiza vs Acassuso — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Acassuso
Acassuso
8/2/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 7Monumental de Villa Lynch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

UAI Urquiza34%
×Draw31%
Acassuso35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UAI Urquiza
0.98
Acassuso
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 131 away

creates per match

UAI Urquiza
0.94
Acassuso
0.95

allows per match

UAI Urquiza
1.04
Acassuso
1.02

finishing

UAI Urquiza+0.00on par
Acassuso+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UAI Urquiza ↓

Acassuso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

UAI Urquiza or draw
65%
UAI Urquiza or Acassuso
69%
Draw or Acassuso
66%

Winning margin

UAI Urquiza wins by 2+
13%
Acassuso wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

UAI Urquiza 1+ goals
62%
UAI Urquiza 2+ goals
26%
UAI Urquiza 3+ goals
8%
Acassuso 1+ goals
63%
Acassuso 2+ goals
26%
Acassuso 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UAI Urquiza (draw refunded)
50%
Acassuso (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UAI Urquiza at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Acassuso away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UAI Urquiza attack 0.94 + Acassuso defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Acassuso attack 0.95 + UAI Urquiza defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

UAI Urquiza scores more
34%
level
31%
Acassuso scores more
35%

Acassuso at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Acassuso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: UAI Urquiza 0–0 Acassuso

UAI Urquiza and Acassuso drew 0-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Monumental de Villa Lynch in Buenos Aires.