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Acassuso vs UAI Urquiza — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Acassuso
Acassuso
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza
3/15/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 7La Quema Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Acassuso42%
×Draw30%
UAI Urquiza28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Acassuso
1.17
UAI Urquiza
0.90

Acassuso creates 30% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 139 away

creates per match

Acassuso
1.03
UAI Urquiza
0.90

allows per match

Acassuso
0.90
UAI Urquiza
1.31

finishing

Acassuso+0.00on par
UAI Urquiza+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Acassuso ↓

UAI Urquiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Acassuso or draw
72%
Acassuso or UAI Urquiza
70%
Draw or UAI Urquiza
58%

Winning margin

Acassuso wins by 2+
18%
UAI Urquiza wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Acassuso 1+ goals
69%
Acassuso 2+ goals
33%
Acassuso 3+ goals
11%
UAI Urquiza 1+ goals
59%
UAI Urquiza 2+ goals
23%
UAI Urquiza 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Acassuso (draw refunded)
60%
UAI Urquiza (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Acassuso at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.90 · 130 matches

UAI Urquiza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Acassuso attack 1.03 + UAI Urquiza defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

UAI Urquiza attack 0.90 + Acassuso defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Acassuso scores more
42%
level
30%
UAI Urquiza scores more
28%

Acassuso at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Acassuso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Acassuso vs UAI Urquiza

Acassuso and UAI Urquiza drew 1-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at La Quema Stadium in Boulogne Sur Mer.