U. San Martin 1–1 UTC Cajamarca: Result & Stats

U. San Martin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

UTC Cajamarca

9/22/2020

Primera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

U. San Martin44%

×Draw26%

UTC Cajamarca30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. San MartinExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

U. San Martin

1.44

UTC Cajamarca

1.13

U. San Martin creates 27% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 144 away

1.24

creates per match

0.91

1.34

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

U. San Martin

1.24

UTC Cajamarca

0.91

allows per match

U. San Martin

1.34

UTC Cajamarca

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw

70%

U. San Martin or UTC Cajamarca

74%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

56%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+

21%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals

76%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

42%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

18%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

68%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

31%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

60%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.24 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + U. San Martin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

U. San Martin scores more

44%

level

26%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

30%

U. San Martin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff