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U. San Martin vs Universitario — Primera División 2026

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Universitario
Universitario
A. Succar 86'
J. Guivin 71'
F. Alonso 68'
A. Valera 45+1' (pen)
7/16/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

U. San Martin32%
×Draw27%
Universitario42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.15
Universitario
1.36

Universitario creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 139 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.27
Universitario
1.30

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.43
Universitario
1.02

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
58%
U. San Martin or Universitario
73%
Draw or Universitario
68%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
13%
Universitario wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
68%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
32%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
11%
Universitario 1+ goals
74%
Universitario 2+ goals
39%
Universitario 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
43%
Universitario (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.27 + Universitario defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Universitario attack 1.30 + U. San Martin defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U. San Martin scores more
32%
level
27%
Universitario scores more
42%

Universitario at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
N. CabanillasUniversitarioUniversitario · D
7.9

Match Events

14'
Daniel Camacho
20'
Piero Guzman
42'
Alfonso Barco
45+1'
A. ValeraPenalty
46'
J. Tuesta← G. Roque
54'
G. Barreto← A. Barco
55'
Axel Moyano
56'
Carlos Martin Solis
58'
L. Campos← D. Camacho
68'
F. Alonso↳ N. Cabanillas
71'
J. Guivin↳ A. Quintero
77'
M. Matzuda← G. Verón
77'
V. Sandoval← S. La Torre
78'
I. Santillán← A. Polo
79'
A. Succar← A. Quintero
82'
M. Delgado← A. Moyano
86'
A. Succar↳ N. Cabanillas
87'
J. Zevallos← J. Guivin
87'
H. Novick← P. Quispe
89'
Juan Tuesta

Possession

34%U.

Shots

6U.

Pass accuracy

46%U.

Statistics

U.Universitario
Overview
34%Possession66%
6Total Shots26
5Corners6
19Fouls15
Shots
6Total Shots26
4On Target11
1Off Target5
1Blocked10
5Inside Box16
1Outside Box10
Passing
34%Possession66%
279Total Passes547
208Accurate Passes478
75%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
7Saves4
Discipline
19Fouls15
4Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Primera División: U. San Martin 0–4 Universitario

Universitario beat U. San Martin 4-0 in Primera División on July 16, 2022.

Goals: A. Valera (45+1' pen), F. Alonso (68'), J. Guivin (71'), A. Succar (86').

Universitario controlled possession (66%) and registered 26 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.