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U. San Martin vs Universitario — Primera División 2026

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Universitario
Universitario
H. Novick 27'
4/15/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

U. San Martin32%
×Draw27%
Universitario42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.15
Universitario
1.36

Universitario creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 139 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.27
Universitario
1.30

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.43
Universitario
1.02

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
58%
U. San Martin or Universitario
73%
Draw or Universitario
68%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
13%
Universitario wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
68%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
32%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
11%
Universitario 1+ goals
74%
Universitario 2+ goals
39%
Universitario 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
43%
Universitario (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.27 + Universitario defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Universitario attack 1.30 + U. San Martin defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U. San Martin scores more
32%
level
27%
Universitario scores more
42%

Universitario at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. PérezU. San MartinU. San Martin · M
7.3

Match Events

10'
Federico Alonso
12'
Nicolás Figueroa
27'
H. Novick
45+1'
Alfonso Barco
45'
Armando Alfageme
46'
A. Gordillo← P. Vivanco
46'
J. Zevallos← D. Chávez
54'
José Hurtado Cuero
62'
H. Bazán← C. Huerto
63'
S. Salas← L. Garro
64'
Nelinho Quina
72'
R. Guarderas← H. Novick
72'
A. Valera← E. Gutiérrez
73'
J. Murrugarra← G. Barreto
80'
M. Carpio← A. Quintero
86'
Luis Valverde
87'
R. Gamarra← J. Inga

Possession

51%U.

Shots

18U.

Pass accuracy

51%U.

Statistics

U.Universitario
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots3
11Corners7
11Fouls19
Shots
18Total Shots3
3On Target2
6Off Target1
9Blocked0
11Inside Box2
7Outside Box1
Passing
51%Possession49%
393Total Passes370
313Accurate Passes288
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls19
3Yellow Cards4

Match Recap: U. San Martin vs Universitario

Universitario beat U. San Martin 1-0 in Primera División on April 15, 2021.

Goals: H. Novick (27').

U. San Martin controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.