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U. San Martin vs Sport Rosario — Primera División 2018

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
7/24/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

U. San Martin52%
×Draw24%
Sport Rosario24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.69
Sport Rosario
1.08

U. San Martin creates 56% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 22 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.24
Sport Rosario
0.82

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.34
Sport Rosario
2.14

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Sport Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
76%
U. San Martin or Sport Rosario
76%
Draw or Sport Rosario
48%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
28%
Sport Rosario wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
82%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
50%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
24%
Sport Rosario 1+ goals
66%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
29%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
68%
Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.24 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + U. San Martin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

U. San Martin scores more
52%
level
24%
Sport Rosario scores more
24%

U. San Martin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: U. San Martin 0–1 Sport Rosario

Sport Rosario beat U. San Martin 1-0 in Primera División on July 24, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.