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Sport Rosario vs U. San Martin — Primera División 2018

Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
U. San Martin
U. San Martin
10/20/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 8Rosas Pampa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sport Rosario50%
×Draw24%
U. San Martin26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Rosario
1.75
U. San Martin
1.21

Sport Rosario creates 45% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 85 away

creates per match

Sport Rosario
1.64
U. San Martin
0.91

allows per match

Sport Rosario
1.50
U. San Martin
1.87

finishing

Sport Rosario+0.00on par
U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Rosario ↓

U. San Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sport Rosario or draw
74%
Sport Rosario or U. San Martin
76%
Draw or U. San Martin
50%

Winning margin

Sport Rosario wins by 2+
27%
U. San Martin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sport Rosario 1+ goals
83%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
52%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
25%
U. San Martin 1+ goals
70%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
34%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
65%
U. San Martin (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Rosario at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.87 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Rosario attack 1.64 + U. San Martin defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.75

U. San Martin attack 0.91 + Sport Rosario defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sport Rosario scores more
50%
level
24%
U. San Martin scores more
26%

Sport Rosario at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sport Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Sport Rosario 0–2 U. San Martin

U. San Martin beat Sport Rosario 2-0 in Primera División on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Rosas Pampa in Huaraz.