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U. San Martin vs Real Garcilaso — Primera División 2018

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
7/21/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

U. San Martin43%
×Draw26%
Real Garcilaso31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.42
Real Garcilaso
1.16

U. San Martin creates 22% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 39 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.24
Real Garcilaso
0.97

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.34
Real Garcilaso
1.59

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Real Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
69%
U. San Martin or Real Garcilaso
74%
Draw or Real Garcilaso
57%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
21%
Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
76%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
41%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
17%
Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
69%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
32%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
58%
Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.24 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + U. San Martin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

U. San Martin scores more
43%
level
26%
Real Garcilaso scores more
31%

U. San Martin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: U. San Martin vs Real Garcilaso

U. San Martin beat Real Garcilaso 2-1 in Primera División on July 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.