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Real Garcilaso vs U. San Martin — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
U. San Martin
U. San Martin
2/25/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso59%
×Draw23%
U. San Martin18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.78
U. San Martin
0.88

Real Garcilaso creates 102% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 85 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
U. San Martin
0.91

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
U. San Martin
1.87

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

U. San Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
82%
Real Garcilaso or U. San Martin
77%
Draw or U. San Martin
41%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
33%
U. San Martin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
83%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
53%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
26%
U. San Martin 1+ goals
59%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
22%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
76%
U. San Martin (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.87 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + U. San Martin defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.78

U. San Martin attack 0.91 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
59%
level
23%
U. San Martin scores more
18%

Real Garcilaso at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Real Garcilaso 2–1 U. San Martin

Real Garcilaso beat U. San Martin 2-1 in Primera División on February 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.