U. San Martin 4–1 Molinos El Pirata: Result & Stats

U. San Martin

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Molinos El Pirata

J. Salem 90+3'

J. Viza 75'

H. Bazán 51'

G. Delgado 18'

M. Peralta 22'

8/2/2023

Segunda División · Round 18Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

U. San Martin52%

×Draw24%

Molinos El Pirata24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. San MartinExpected goals in this matchMolinos El Pirata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.04

U. San Martin

1.66

Molinos El Pirata

1.04

U. San Martin creates 60% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 64 away

1.23

creates per match

0.95

1.13

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

U. San Martin

1.23

Molinos El Pirata

0.95

allows per match

U. San Martin

1.13

Molinos El Pirata

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Molinos El Pirata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw

76%

U. San Martin or Molinos El Pirata

76%

Draw or Molinos El Pirata

48%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+

28%

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals

81%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

49%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

23%

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

65%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

28%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

69%

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

Molinos El Pirata away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.23 + Molinos El Pirata defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.66

Molinos El Pirata attack 0.95 + U. San Martin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

U. San Martin scores more

52%

level

24%

Molinos El Pirata scores more

24%

U. San Martin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

22'

51'

58'

60'

61'

71'

72'

J. Villalobos← J. Rodríguez

72'

P. Ferreira← H. Kambou

73'

P. Alva

73'

P. Alva

75'

J. Viza

81'

E. Alvarado← G. Delgado

81'

J. Salem← D. Ismodes

81'

R. Cruzado← J. Viza

90'

E. Alvarado

90'

S. Sotelo← P. Ynamine

90+3'

J. Salem

U.

Molinos

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Viza

Soto

⚽

Bazán

⚽

▼

Delgado

▼

Acuy

Manager: D. Cisneros

71'▲A. Arteaga←▼L. Acuy

81'▲E. Alvarado←▼G. Delgado

81'▲J. Salem←▼D. Ismodes

81'▲R. Cruzado←▼J. Viza

90'▲S. Sotelo←▼P. Ynamine

U. San Martin substitutes

ArteagaAlvaradoSalemCruzadoSoteloCastilloVásquez

Manager: D. Castellanos

60'▲G. Rigazzi←▼D. López

72'▲J. Villalobos←▼J. Rodríguez

72'▲P. Ferreira←▼H. Kambou

Molinos El Pirata substitutes

RigazziVillalobosFerreiraLeónColchadoRojasLozano