Molinos El Pirata 2–1 U. San Martin: Result & Stats

Molinos El Pirata

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

U. San Martin

J. Carbajal 75'

L. Chaparro 48' (pen)

D. Ismodes 3'

8/11/2025

Segunda División · Relegation Round - 4Estadio Municipal de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Molinos El Pirata38%

×Draw26%

U. San Martin36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molinos El PirataExpected goals in this matchU. San Martin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.30

Molinos El Pirata

1.34

U. San Martin

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 42 away

1.25

creates per match

1.21

1.40

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.25

U. San Martin

1.21

allows per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.40

U. San Martin

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molinos El Pirata ↓

U. San Martin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Molinos El Pirata or draw

64%

Molinos El Pirata or U. San Martin

74%

Draw or U. San Martin

62%

Winning margin

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

17%

U. San Martin wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

74%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

39%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

15%

U. San Martin 1+ goals

73%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

37%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

51%

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molinos El Pirata at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.40 · 67 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.43 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molinos El Pirata attack 1.25 + U. San Martin defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

U. San Martin attack 1.21 + Molinos El Pirata defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Molinos El Pirata scores more

38%

level

26%

U. San Martin scores more

36%

Molinos El Pirata at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Molinos El Pirata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

13'

22'

25'

45'

46'

46'

48'

48'

L. ChaparroPenalty

49'

50'

62'

67'

75'

77'

S. Cornejo← A. Arteaga

77'

K. Sanchez← M. Matzuda

82'

M. Suclupe← J. Carhualllanqui

82'

M. Diaz← B. Vargas

85'

J. Romero← F. Vera

85'

J. Gonzales← D. Ismodes

86'

S. Cornejo

89'

C. Torres

90+3'

J. Gonzales

Molinos

U.

1

Cavagna

39

▼

4

5

19

34

29

⚽

▼

Ismodes

80

Oliva

13

Vega

11

▼

Matzuda

18

▼

24

3

4

5

6

▼

Navarro

10

⚽

Chaparro

11

▼

Lugo

2

Morales

25

▼

Tapia

17

▼

Carhualll

18

▼

Vargas

Manager: J. Butrón

46'▲B. Huaman←▼D. Tapia

46'▲P. Anton←▼J. Navarro

67'▲J. Carbajal←▼K. Lugo

82'▲M. Suclupe←▼J. Carhualllanqui

82'▲M. Diaz←▼B. Vargas

Molinos El Pirata substitutes

12Cordova8Carbajal14Huaman32Suclupe19Quiroz22Huaman7Diaz23Anton15Chirinos

Manager: V. Rivera

77'▲S. Cornejo←▼A. Arteaga

77'▲K. Sanchez←▼M. Matzuda

85'▲J. Romero←▼F. Vera

85'▲J. Gonzales←▼D. Ismodes

U. San Martin substitutes

58Aliaga26Reyes23Vargas25Ruiz21Romero6Cortes27Gonzales30Cornejo22Sanchez