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U. San Martin vs Juan Aurich — Segunda División 2018

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Juan Aurich
Juan Aurich
8/10/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 19Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

U. San Martin44%
×Draw26%
Juan Aurich31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.46
Juan Aurich
1.18

U. San Martin creates 24% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 69 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.23
Juan Aurich
1.23

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.13
Juan Aurich
1.68

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Juan Aurich+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Juan Aurich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
69%
U. San Martin or Juan Aurich
74%
Draw or Juan Aurich
56%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
21%
Juan Aurich wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
77%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
43%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
18%
Juan Aurich 1+ goals
69%
Juan Aurich 2+ goals
33%
Juan Aurich 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
59%
Juan Aurich (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

Juan Aurich away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.23 + Juan Aurich defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Juan Aurich attack 1.23 + U. San Martin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

U. San Martin scores more
44%
level
26%
Juan Aurich scores more
31%

U. San Martin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: U. San Martin vs Juan Aurich

Juan Aurich beat U. San Martin 1-0 in Segunda División on August 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.