Juan Aurich 0–2 U. San Martin: Result & Stats

Juan Aurich

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

U. San Martin

5/17/2023

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Juan Aurich47%

×Draw26%

U. San Martin27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juan AurichExpected goals in this matchU. San Martin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.09

Juan Aurich

1.51

U. San Martin

1.09

Juan Aurich creates 39% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 41 away

1.64

creates per match

1.20

0.99

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Juan Aurich

1.64

U. San Martin

1.20

allows per match

Juan Aurich

0.99

U. San Martin

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juan Aurich+0.00on par

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Aurich ↓

U. San Martin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Juan Aurich or draw

73%

Juan Aurich or U. San Martin

74%

Draw or U. San Martin

53%

Winning margin

Juan Aurich wins by 2+

23%

U. San Martin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Juan Aurich 1+ goals

78%

Juan Aurich 2+ goals

44%

Juan Aurich 3+ goals

19%

U. San Martin 1+ goals

66%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

30%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)

63%

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Aurich at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 70 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Aurich attack 1.64 + U. San Martin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

U. San Martin attack 1.20 + Juan Aurich defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Juan Aurich scores more

47%

level

26%

U. San Martin scores more

27%

Juan Aurich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Juan Aurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff