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U. San Martin vs Deportivo Municipal — Segunda División 2018

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
5/17/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

U. San Martin41%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Municipal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.40
Deportivo Municipal
1.23

U. San Martin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 9 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.23
Deportivo Municipal
1.33

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.13
Deportivo Municipal
1.56

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Deportivo Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
67%
U. San Martin or Deportivo Municipal
74%
Draw or Deportivo Municipal
59%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
75%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
41%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
55%
Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.23 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.33 + U. San Martin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

U. San Martin scores more
41%
level
26%
Deportivo Municipal scores more
33%

U. San Martin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: U. San Martin 2–2 Deportivo Municipal

U. San Martin and Deportivo Municipal drew 2-2 in Segunda División on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.