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Deportivo Municipal vs U. San Martin — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
U. San Martin
U. San Martin
7/9/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Municipal36%
×Draw28%
U. San Martin37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Municipal
1.19
U. San Martin
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 41 away

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.00
U. San Martin
1.20

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.22
U. San Martin
1.39

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par
U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

U. San Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw
63%
Deportivo Municipal or U. San Martin
72%
Draw or U. San Martin
64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
15%
U. San Martin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
12%
U. San Martin 1+ goals
70%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
34%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
49%
U. San Martin (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.00 + U. San Martin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

U. San Martin attack 1.20 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more
36%
level
28%
U. San Martin scores more
37%

U. San Martin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo Municipal 1–1 U. San Martin

Deportivo Municipal and U. San Martin drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.