U. San Martin 0–3 Comerciantes: Result & Stats

U. San Martin

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Comerciantes

C. Hurtado 75' (pen)

J. Dominguez 62'

Y. Mena 57'

6/8/2025

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

U. San Martin42%

×Draw29%

Comerciantes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. San MartinExpected goals in this matchComerciantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.97

U. San Martin

1.21

Comerciantes

0.97

U. San Martin creates 25% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 45 away

1.23

creates per match

0.82

1.13

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

U. San Martin

1.23

Comerciantes

0.82

allows per match

U. San Martin

1.13

Comerciantes

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Comerciantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Comerciantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw

71%

U. San Martin or Comerciantes

71%

Draw or Comerciantes

58%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+

18%

Comerciantes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals

70%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

34%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

12%

Comerciantes 1+ goals

62%

Comerciantes 2+ goals

25%

Comerciantes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

59%

Comerciantes (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

Comerciantes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.23 + Comerciantes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Comerciantes attack 0.82 + U. San Martin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U. San Martin scores more

42%

level

29%

Comerciantes scores more

29%

U. San Martin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

38'

50'

50'

57'

57'

J. Caicedo← J. Sanchez

57'

Y. Mena

62'

J. Dominguez

65'

M. Matzuda← S. Cornejo

65'

C. Vega← J. Falconi

70'

D. Reyes← D. Huacachin

74'

D. Minaya

75'

C. HurtadoPenalty

76'

A. Cavagna

78'

L. Flores← B. Aburto

84'

J. Tuesta← C. Hurtado

84'

J. Zambrano← Y. Mena

89'

P. Ferreira← J. Navarro

90+2'

M. Matzuda

U.

Comerciantes

1

Silva

31

▼

33

32

5

28

10

22

▼

Aburto

7

⚽

▼

Hurtado

19

⚽

Dominguez

11

⚽

▼

1

4

3

5

19

8

16

▼

Falconi

28

▼

Huacachin

10

▼

Sanchez

30

▼

Cornejo

18

▼

Arteaga

Manager: V. Rivera

57'▲F. Vera←▼A. Arteaga

57'▲J. Caicedo←▼J. Sanchez

65'▲M. Matzuda←▼S. Cornejo

65'▲C. Vega←▼J. Falconi

70'▲D. Reyes←▼D. Huacachin

U. San Martin substitutes

58Aliaga39Vera90Alfageme23Vargas26Reyes6Cortes11Matzuda13Vega17Caicedo

Manager: J. Bazalar

78'▲L. Flores←▼B. Aburto

84'▲J. Tuesta←▼C. Hurtado

84'▲J. Zambrano←▼Y. Mena

89'▲P. Ferreira←▼J. Navarro

Comerciantes substitutes

13Garcia17Vela30Tuesta27Ferreira8Flores18Vasquez9Zambrano