Comerciantes 2–1 U. San Martin: Result & Stats

Comerciantes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

U. San Martin

J. Dominguez 54', 8'

J. Caicedo 84'

4/20/2025

Segunda División · Round 3Estadio Max Augustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Comerciantes55%

×Draw24%

U. San Martin21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComerciantesExpected goals in this matchU. San Martin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.91

Comerciantes

1.66

U. San Martin

0.91

Comerciantes creates 82% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 42 away

1.89

creates per match

1.21

0.61

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Comerciantes

1.89

U. San Martin

1.21

allows per match

Comerciantes

0.61

U. San Martin

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comerciantes+0.00on par

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes ↓

U. San Martin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Comerciantes or draw

79%

Comerciantes or U. San Martin

76%

Draw or U. San Martin

45%

Winning margin

Comerciantes wins by 2+

30%

U. San Martin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Comerciantes 1+ goals

81%

Comerciantes 2+ goals

49%

Comerciantes 3+ goals

23%

U. San Martin 1+ goals

60%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

23%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes (draw refunded)

73%

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.61 · 44 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.43 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes attack 1.89 + U. San Martin defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.66

U. San Martin attack 1.21 + Comerciantes defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Comerciantes scores more

55%

level

24%

U. San Martin scores more

21%

Comerciantes at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Comerciantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Dominguez

54'

J. Dominguez

62'

F. Vera← A. Yanez

62'

M. Matzuda← J. Sanchez

62'

J. Romero← C. Vega

69'

B. Aburto← F. Arevalo

72'

A. Alfageme← T. Carranza

72'

J. Caicedo← H. Zeta

73'

J. Dominguez

77'

P. Ferreira← J. Navarro

77'

84'

86'

86'

87'

P. Vela← L. Salas

89'

Comerciantes

U.

1

Cavagna

3

Minaya

14

▼

15

5

29

10

▼

Sanchez

8

▼

Carranza

6

Cortes

13

▼

Vega

9

▼

Zeta

1

Silva

31

▼

Navarro

33

Valdeblan

32

Flores

12

▼

Salas

5

Pinedo

16

Valverde

19

⚽2

Dominguez

28

Chipao

6

▼

Arevalo

18

▼

Vasquez

Manager: J. Bazalar

69'▲B. Aburto←▼F. Arevalo

77'▲P. Ferreira←▼J. Navarro

77'▲C. Ruiz←▼J. Vasquez

87'▲P. Vela←▼L. Salas

Comerciantes substitutes

13Garcia8Flores17Vela30Tuesta22Aburto27Ferreira14Ruiz34Bosmediano10Lemos

Manager: V. Rivera

62'▲F. Vera←▼A. Yanez

62'▲M. Matzuda←▼J. Sanchez

62'▲J. Romero←▼C. Vega

72'▲A. Alfageme←▼T. Carranza

72'▲J. Caicedo←▼H. Zeta

U. San Martin substitutes

58Aliaga39Vera23Vargas90Alfageme4Cuba11Matzuda21Romero17Caicedo30Cornejo

Segunda División: Comerciantes 2–1 U. San Martin

Comerciantes beat U. San Martin 2-1 in Segunda División on April 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Dominguez (8', 54'), J. Caicedo (84').

The match was played at Estadio Max Augustín in Iquitos.

Comerciantes vs U. San Martin — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Comerciantes 2–1 U. San Martin