Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

U. San Martin vs Alfonso Ugarte Puno — Segunda División 2018

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
6/8/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

U. San Martin53%
×Draw24%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.70
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
1.04

U. San Martin creates 63% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 25 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.23
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.96

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.13
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
2.16

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Alfonso Ugarte Puno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
77%
U. San Martin or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
76%
Draw or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
47%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
29%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
82%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
51%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
24%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals
65%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals
28%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
69%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.23 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.70

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 0.96 + U. San Martin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

U. San Martin scores more
53%
level
24%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more
23%

U. San Martin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: U. San Martin 2–1 Alfonso Ugarte Puno

U. San Martin beat Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2-1 in Segunda División on June 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros in Chancay.