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Alfonso Ugarte Puno vs U. San Martin — Segunda División 2018

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
U. San Martin
U. San Martin
8/31/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 22Estádio Modelo de Ilave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno50%
×Draw25%
U. San Martin25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
1.61
U. San Martin
1.06

Alfonso Ugarte Puno creates 52% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 41 away

creates per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
1.84
U. San Martin
1.20

allows per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.92
U. San Martin
1.39

finishing

Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par
U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfonso Ugarte Puno ↓

U. San Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alfonso Ugarte Puno or draw
75%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno or U. San Martin
75%
Draw or U. San Martin
50%

Winning margin

Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+
26%
U. San Martin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals
80%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals
48%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals
22%
U. San Martin 1+ goals
65%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
29%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)
67%
U. San Martin (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 1.84 + U. San Martin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

U. San Martin attack 1.20 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more
50%
level
25%
U. San Martin scores more
25%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alfonso Ugarte Puno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alfonso Ugarte Puno vs U. San Martin

Alfonso Ugarte Puno beat U. San Martin 3-1 in Segunda División on August 31, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Modelo de Ilave in Ilave.