U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–2 Seattle Sounders

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Seattle Sounders

J. Dinenno 48', 38' (pen)

N. Lodeiro 90+9' (pen), 77' (pen)

4/28/2022

CONCACAF Champions League · FinalsEstadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas57%

×Draw22%

Seattle Sounders21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchSeattle Sounders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.06

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.89

Seattle Sounders

1.06

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 78% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

2.14

creates per match

1.27

0.86

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

2.14

Seattle Sounders

1.27

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

0.86

Seattle Sounders

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Seattle Sounders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Seattle Sounders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

79%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Seattle Sounders

78%

Draw or Seattle Sounders

43%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

33%

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

85%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

56%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

29%

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals

65%

Seattle Sounders 2+ goals

29%

Seattle Sounders 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

73%

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Seattle Sounders away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 2.14 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.89

Seattle Sounders attack 1.27 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

57%

level

22%

Seattle Sounders scores more

21%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Dinenno

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · F

8.3

Match Events

35'

Yeimar Gómez Andrade

38'

J. DinennoPenalty

45+2'

J. Rivas← A. Mozo

48'

J. Dinenno↳ J. Rivas

63'

S. Saucedo← Rogério

63'

W. Corozo← Diogo

75'

Nicolás LodeiroPenalty confirmed

77'

N. LodeiroPenalty

83'

87'

90+9'

90+8'

90+8'

90+6'

Cristian RoldánPenalty awarded

90+5'

F. Montero← R. Ruidíaz

90+9'

N. LodeiroPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Seattle

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots10

4Corners7

15Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target4

5Off Target4

3Blocked2

4Inside Box7

8Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

353Total Passes434

276Accurate Passes349

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1