U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–0 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Santos Laguna

2/19/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas53%

×Draw24%

Santos Laguna24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.08

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.74

Santos Laguna

1.08

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 61% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 142 away

1.61

creates per match

1.09

1.08

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.61

Santos Laguna

1.09

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.08

Santos Laguna

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

76%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Santos Laguna

76%

Draw or Santos Laguna

47%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

29%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

82%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

52%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

25%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

66%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

29%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

69%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 147 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.61 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.74

Santos Laguna attack 1.09 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

53%

level

24%

Santos Laguna scores more

24%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff