Santos Laguna 3–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Santos Laguna

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

C. Dajome 89'

R. Sordo 54'

A. Lopez 14'

7/13/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Santos Laguna48%

×Draw25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.15

Santos Laguna

1.60

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.15

Santos Laguna creates 39% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 151 away

1.66

creates per match

1.13

1.18

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.66

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.13

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.18

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

73%

Santos Laguna or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

75%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

52%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

80%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

47%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

22%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

68%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

32%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

64%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

48%

level

25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

27%

Santos Laguna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Lopez

Santos Laguna · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

14'

19'

22'

46'

54'

57'

A. Rico← R. Lopez

58'

E. Villasenor← P. Monroy

62'

Adalberto Carrasquilla

65'

C. Lozano← J. A. Ocejo Zazueta

69'

Rubén Duarte

72'

M. G. Torres Berlanga← P. A. Quispe Cordova

73'

Pablo Bennevendo

80'

E. Gutierrez← K. Balanta

80'

C. Dajome← R. Sordo

80'

J. Carrillo← F. Villalba

89'

C. Dajome↳ A. Lopez

90'

Cristián Dájome

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosU.N.A.M.

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots10

1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.66

1Corners5

16Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target2

3Off Target5

1Blocked3

5Inside Box8

3Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

320Total Passes383

235Accurate Passes318

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides7