Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
J. Dinenno 79'
L. Suárez 77'
J. Brunetta 50'
F. Gorriarán 42' (pen)
H. Preciado 39', 29'
8/21/2022Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas45%
×Draw23%
Santos Laguna32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.79
Santos Laguna
1.49

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Santos Laguna
1.61

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Santos Laguna
1.95

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
68%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Santos Laguna
77%
Draw or Santos Laguna
55%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
24%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
83%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
53%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
26%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
77%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
44%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
58%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
45%
level
23%
Santos Laguna scores more
32%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
H. PreciadoSantos LagunaSantos Laguna · F
8.7

Match Events

29'
H. Preciado↳ O. Campos
30'
Harold PreciadoGoal confirmed
39'
H. Preciado↳ J. González
42'
F. GorriaránPenalty
45+2'
Harold PreciadoGoal cancelled
46'
L. López← C. Gutiérrez
50'
J. Brunetta↳ H. Preciado
51'
D. Medina← J. González
55'
C. Huerta← M. García
55'
G. Del Prete← J. Ruvalcaba
59'
L. Suárez← J. Brunetta
59'
J. Correa← E. Aguirre
71'
C. Domínguez← H. Preciado
71'
A. López← F. Gorriarán
77'
L. Suárez
79'
J. Dinenno↳ Dani Alves

Possession

57%U.N.A.M.

Shots

19U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

52%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Santos
Overview
57%Possession43%
19Total Shots16
8Corners4
13Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots16
5On Target10
11Off Target3
3Blocked3
17Inside Box11
2Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
417Total Passes332
353Accurate Passes259
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls11
0Offsides3

Match Recap: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Santos Laguna

Santos Laguna beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 5-1 in Liga MX on August 21, 2022.

Goals: H. Preciado (29', 39'), F. Gorriarán (42' pen), J. Brunetta (50'), L. Suárez (77'), J. Dinenno (79').

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..