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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
O. Campos 64'
D. Valdés 53', 17'
11/5/2021Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas45%
×Draw23%
Santos Laguna32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.79
Santos Laguna
1.49

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Santos Laguna
1.61

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Santos Laguna
1.95

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
68%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Santos Laguna
77%
Draw or Santos Laguna
55%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
24%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
83%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
53%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
26%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
77%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
44%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
58%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
45%
level
23%
Santos Laguna scores more
32%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. AcevedoSantos LagunaSantos Laguna · G
8.9

Match Events

17'
D. Valdés↳ J. Isijara
32'
Favio Álvarez
45+3'
Fernando Gorriarán
53'
D. Valdés↳ A. Preciado
56'
Diogo← W. Corozo
56'
S. Saucedo← C. Battocchio
59'
I. Govea← A. Preciado
64'
O. Campos↳ F. Otero
71'
Alan Cervantes
79'
B. Lozano← D. Valdés
79'
U. Rivas← F. Gorriarán
79'
I. Jeraldino← Eduardo Aguirre
80'
Jesús Isijara
81'
Arturo Ortiz
87'
D. Andrade← O. Campos

Possession

69%U.N.A.M.

Shots

18U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

55%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Santos
Overview
69%Possession31%
18Total Shots13
7Corners3
11Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots13
5On Target5
9Off Target6
4Blocked2
11Inside Box7
7Outside Box6
Passing
69%Possession31%
503Total Passes232
417Accurate Passes160
83%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3

Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0–3 Santos Laguna

Santos Laguna beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-0 in Liga MX on November 5, 2021.

Goals: D. Valdés (17', 53'), O. Campos (64').

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (69%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..