U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–0 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santos Laguna

D. Cabrera 90+9' (pen)

C. González 68'

9/29/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas45%

×Draw23%

Santos Laguna32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.49

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.79

Santos Laguna

1.49

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.62

creates per match

1.61

1.37

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.62

Santos Laguna

1.61

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Santos Laguna

1.95

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more

Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

68%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

55%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

24%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

83%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

53%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

26%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

77%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

44%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

58%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

45%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

32%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Iturbe

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · F

7.8

Match Events

31'

34'

37'

43'

46'

58'

J. Vázquez← A. Lozano

64'

M. Rodríguez← I. Malcorra

68'

C. González↳ J. Iturbe

72'

E. Aguirre← U. Rivas

78'

K. Escamilla← P. Barrera

80'

E. Games← E. Orrantía

82'

D. Cabrera← J. Iturbe

90'

José Juan Vázquez

90+9'

D. CabreraPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Santos

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots6

4Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots6

7On Target2

2Off Target3

3Blocked1

6Inside Box2

6Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

328Total Passes357

219Accurate Passes247

67%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides3