U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–0 LD Alajuelense: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

LD Alajuelense

3/5/2025

CONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas66%

×Draw21%

LD Alajuelense13%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchLD Alajuelense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.73

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.97

LD Alajuelense

0.73

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 170% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.14

creates per match

0.60

0.86

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

2.14

LD Alajuelense

0.60

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

0.86

LD Alajuelense

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

LD Alajuelense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

LD Alajuelense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

87%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or LD Alajuelense

79%

Draw or LD Alajuelense

34%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

41%

LD Alajuelense wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

86%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

58%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

31%

LD Alajuelense 1+ goals

52%

LD Alajuelense 2+ goals

17%

LD Alajuelense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

84%

LD Alajuelense (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

LD Alajuelense away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 2.14 + LD Alajuelense defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.97

LD Alajuelense attack 0.60 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

66%

level

21%

LD Alajuelense scores more

13%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff