LD Alajuelense 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

LD Alajuelense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

3/14/2025

CONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

LD Alajuelense39%

×Draw27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LD AlajuelenseExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.18

LD Alajuelense

1.30

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.18

LD Alajuelense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

0.60

creates per match

0.75

1.60

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

LD Alajuelense

0.60

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

0.75

allows per match

LD Alajuelense

1.60

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LD Alajuelense+0.00on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LD Alajuelense ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

LD Alajuelense or draw

66%

LD Alajuelense or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

73%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

61%

Winning margin

LD Alajuelense wins by 2+

18%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

LD Alajuelense 1+ goals

73%

LD Alajuelense 2+ goals

37%

LD Alajuelense 3+ goals

14%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

69%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

33%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

LD Alajuelense (draw refunded)

54%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LD Alajuelense at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LD Alajuelense attack 0.60 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 0.75 + LD Alajuelense defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

LD Alajuelense scores more

39%

level

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

34%

LD Alajuelense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "LD Alajuelense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff