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U Craiova 1948 vs Rapid — Liga I 2018

U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rapid
Rapid
9/10/2022Liga ILiga I · Round 10Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

U Craiova 194839%
×Draw26%
Rapid35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U Craiova 1948
1.34
Rapid
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 99 away

creates per match

U Craiova 1948
1.43
Rapid
1.21

allows per match

U Craiova 1948
1.29
Rapid
1.26

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw
65%
U Craiova 1948 or Rapid
74%
Draw or Rapid
61%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
18%
Rapid wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
74%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
39%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
15%
Rapid 1+ goals
71%
Rapid 2+ goals
36%
Rapid 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
53%
Rapid (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.43 + Rapid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rapid attack 1.21 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more
39%
level
26%
Rapid scores more
35%

U Craiova 1948 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: U Craiova 1948 1–0 Rapid

U Craiova 1948 beat Rapid 1-0 in Liga I on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu in Târgu Jiu.