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Rapid vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga I 2018

Rapid
Rapid
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
1/19/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 22Superbet Arena-Giulești

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Rapid48%
×Draw26%
U Craiova 194826%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.47
U Craiova 1948
1.01

Rapid creates 46% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 59 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.63
U Craiova 1948
1.02

allows per match

Rapid
1.00
U Craiova 1948
1.31

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
74%
Rapid or U Craiova 1948
74%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
52%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
24%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
77%
Rapid 2+ goals
43%
Rapid 3+ goals
18%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
64%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
27%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
65%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 100 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.63 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + Rapid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rapid scores more
48%
level
26%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
26%

Rapid at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Rapid 4–3 U Craiova 1948

Rapid beat U Craiova 1948 4-3 in Liga I on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Superbet Arena-Giulești in București.