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U Craiova 1948 vs GAZ Metan Medias — Liga I 2018

U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
GAZ Metan Medias
GAZ Metan Medias
10/22/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 13Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

U Craiova 194847%
×Draw26%
GAZ Metan Medias27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U Craiova 1948
1.51
GAZ Metan Medias
1.09

U Craiova 1948 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 76 away

creates per match

U Craiova 1948
1.43
GAZ Metan Medias
0.89

allows per match

U Craiova 1948
1.29
GAZ Metan Medias
1.59

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par
GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw
73%
U Craiova 1948 or GAZ Metan Medias
74%
Draw or GAZ Metan Medias
53%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
23%
GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
78%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
44%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
19%
GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals
66%
GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals
30%
GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
63%
GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.43 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.51

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more
47%
level
26%
GAZ Metan Medias scores more
27%

U Craiova 1948 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: U Craiova 1948 vs GAZ Metan Medias

U Craiova 1948 beat GAZ Metan Medias 2-0 in Liga I on October 22, 2021.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.