GAZ Metan Medias 0–2 U Craiova 1948: Result & Stats

GAZ Metan Medias

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

U Craiova 1948

3/19/2022

Liga I · Relegation Round - 2Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

GAZ Metan Medias40%

×Draw28%

U Craiova 194832%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GAZ Metan MediasExpected goals in this matchU Craiova 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.11

GAZ Metan Medias

1.27

U Craiova 1948

1.11

GAZ Metan Medias creates 14% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 59 away

1.23

creates per match

1.02

1.21

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.23

U Craiova 1948

1.02

allows per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.21

U Craiova 1948

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAZ Metan Medias ↓

U Craiova 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

GAZ Metan Medias or draw

68%

GAZ Metan Medias or U Craiova 1948

72%

Draw or U Craiova 1948

60%

Winning margin

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

18%

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

72%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

36%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

14%

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

67%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

30%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

55%

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAZ Metan Medias at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAZ Metan Medias attack 1.23 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

40%

level

28%

U Craiova 1948 scores more

32%

GAZ Metan Medias at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "GAZ Metan Medias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff