U Craiova 1948 0–2 FCSB: Result & Stats | Liga I

U Craiova 1948

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

FCSB

11/13/2022

Liga I · Round 18Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

U Craiova 194834%

×Draw26%

FCSB40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U Craiova 1948Expected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.40

U Craiova 1948

1.25

FCSB

1.40

FCSB creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 155 away

1.43

creates per match

1.51

1.29

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

U Craiova 1948

1.43

FCSB

1.51

allows per match

U Craiova 1948

1.29

FCSB

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw

60%

U Craiova 1948 or FCSB

74%

Draw or FCSB

66%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

14%

FCSB wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

71%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

36%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

13%

FCSB 1+ goals

75%

FCSB 2+ goals

41%

FCSB 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

45%

FCSB (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.43 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

FCSB attack 1.51 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more

34%

level

26%

FCSB scores more

40%

FCSB at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff