FCSB 1–1 U Craiova 1948: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

U Craiova 1948

7/31/2022

Liga I · Round 3Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

FCSB51%

×Draw25%

U Craiova 194824%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchU Craiova 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.00

FCSB

1.58

U Craiova 1948

1.00

FCSB creates 58% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 59 away

1.84

creates per match

1.02

0.99

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

FCSB

1.84

U Craiova 1948

1.02

allows per match

FCSB

0.99

U Craiova 1948

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

U Craiova 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

76%

FCSB or U Craiova 1948

75%

Draw or U Craiova 1948

49%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

26%

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

79%

FCSB 2+ goals

47%

FCSB 3+ goals

21%

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

63%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

26%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

68%

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.99 · 154 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.84 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.58

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + FCSB defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FCSB scores more

51%

level

25%

U Craiova 1948 scores more

24%

FCSB at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff